Newport Beach Election Observation

As if you all haven't read enough Election analysis...here's another.

I predicted a Measure B (City Hall in the Park) victory 65% to 35%, and was a bit too optimistic for them, with the final tally being a bit closer at 52.8 % to 47.2%. I'm actually a bit surprised that it was that close, especially with the fund raising dollar spread between the two groups.

I also predicted a low voter turnout for this, and depending on how you tilt your head at this, it was kinda low, all things considered (but not all the mail-in ballots have been tallied).

A total of 26351 folks voted on Measure B, which is approximately a 44% turnout (out of the close to 60,000 registered voters in Newport Beach).

For a Presidential primary, is that good?

Countywide, Orange County had a 40% turnout, so Newport Beach did a bit better.

But lets take a comparison against some previous Newport Beach Measures, which were voted on during the General Election.

Measure V - General Plan had 29384 votes

Measure X - Greenlight 2 had 29469 votes

Both were done in the General Election, but not during a Presidential cycle in 2006

Measure L - Marina Park had 44795 votes during the General Election during the Presidential cycle in 2004

Measure S - Greenlight 1 had 33820 votes during the Presidential election of 2000.

So what does all that mean?

Less people came out to vote for the City Hall than any of the other important issues which Newport Beach has faced this decade.

But am I'm comparing Apples to Apples, since this was done during the Primary, and the others were during the General Election, when more people typically come out to vote?

Maybe...maybe not.

Conventional wisdom tells us that people usually don't come to vote during Non-Presidential cycles as compared as during Presidential cycles, yet in 2006 (when most of the City Council seats were up for election) more people showed up to vote on the General Plan (which isn't the easiest thing to understand, and less money was spent promoting it) than the City Hall in the Park.

Will the mail bring in tons and tons more mailed-in ballots (not included in that 26351 figure)?

Maybe not tons, but it should add to the total voter turnout number.

But I think the lower turnout, especially during Super Tuesday where we got to vote on who gets a chance to represents the Democrat and Republican Party in the fall, might show that people cared more about Marina Park (way more), the General Plan, and Greenlight 1 and 2 than they do about where to put a new fancy White Elephant.

But I'll wait until the final mailed-in vote numbers come in before making that final judgment...