A Perfect Storm for Councilwoman Leslie Daigle?

Red County OC has had a couple of posts (here and here) about the folks lining up for Assemblyman Chuck Devore's open seat in 2010.

The "biggest" name which has been floating around every since Chuck got elected in 2004 has been Tustin City Councilman Jerry Amante. And while his name is completely unknown in Newport Beach, Irvine and most other parts of the 70th Assembly District (Tustin sits primarily in the 71th AD), he is very well known in the Republican circles, usually playing an..."interesting" role at the Iger's Election Day luncheons.

Newport Beach's own Mayor Pro-Tem Keith Curry's name has also been floating around, in addition to Irvine Councilman Steven Choi (who ran unsuccessfully for the 71th AD Assembly race in 2008), amongst many more.

But not mentioned in the Red County posts is Newport Beach Councilwoman (and former Mayor Pro-Tem) Leslie Daigle.

The rumors have been rampant ever since Leslie was appointed to the Newport Beach City Council a few years back of her interest in this seat.

But most of the time, every time her name was mentioned, laughter (coupled with chuckling, snickering, and snide comments) would usually follow and her chances would be quickly dismissed as futile at best.

Most recently people refer to her barely winning her re-election campaign in 2006 against someone who HAD ALREADY DROPPED OUT of the race months before Election Day.

But...

As I was one who would summarily dismiss Daigle's chances and aspirations for the Assembly Seat, after reading the Red County posts, I suddenly realized that she may have a better chance than originally thought...

...and here's why:

1. Tustin Councilman Jerry Amante and Newport Beach Mayor Pro-Tem Keith Curry are two very similar Political people.

• While they are unknown in the majority of 70th Assembly District, they are VERY well known within the Republican Circles. And their political philosophies are very similar as well (barred a couple of questionable NON-CONSERVATIVE votes they've both made over the years in their respective cities).
  
• They also both well known by the same Well-Heeled Donor base, which means that the fancy folks of the Business oriented "republican" (notice the small "r") clubs will be split amongst who they will officially endorse, as well as split amongst where the much needed money will go.

2. Irvine Councilman Steven Choi has now won four times in Irvine (twice for Irvine School Board and twice for the Irvine City Council). During the last 2008 election, he made some Anti-Muslim comments, but that didn't seem to matter eventhough Irvine has lots of Muslin voters. Since Irvine is smack dab in the middle of the 70th AD and probably holds the majority of the voters, a familiar name on their ballot might make that much of a difference. Remember Assemblyman Devore and his most immediate predecessor now-Congressman John Campbell were both from Irvine.

3. The other names mentioned? Well...considering that the last Assemblymen and Assemblywomen elected DID NOT come from the City Council ranks, it definitely helps their chances as well...but it's still early for a juggernaut like Devore or Campbell to appear (although I sure hope the rumors that Lee Lowrey running are true)

So where does my opinion that Councilwoman Daigle now stands a GREAT chance in winning the seat come from?

Consider this -

1. While Amante and Curry are good fundraisers, philosophically similar, and relatively known in the 70th Assemblyman District, they are essentially the same type of Politician (talk about timing...as I write this, I just got a Press Release from the Amante for Assembly 2010 campaign). This means that they will split the money, split the support, and thus...SPLIT THE VOTES.

2. Irvine Councilman Choi? His strength is his name ID in Irvine. He's not the best fundraiser, but he's a good campaigner (came from no where to win the School Board and overcame MAJOR odds to win the City Council seat). However, his political philosophy is similar to Amante and Curry, with his smaller bank account, he should also split some of this Irvine votes with Curry and Amante too.

So according to my wacky theory, those three people should split the same Republican vote.

All three will taut their Conservative Republican credentials.

All three will draw from the same fundraising well.

All three will be competing for the same vote.

And Leslie?

Leslie is not a Conservative Republican.

Leslie will not be drawing from the same fundraising well.

Leslie will not be competing against those three guys for the same vote.

Leslie could potentially slip right in and grab enough of those same non-Conservative Republican voters in the 70th Assembly District who voted for President Obama.

Splitting the Conservative vote in this Assembly District isn't anything new.

Remember Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer?

And splitting the vote between well known candidates isn't that foreign to Newport Beach voters as well.

Former Mayor John Heffernan was able to defeat an Incumbent and a former Newport Beach City Manager to win his first election.

All Leslie needs to do is raise just enough money, hang in long enough, keep her mouth tempered by keeping her comments and speeches SHORT AND CONCISE (unlike this post of mine...). Once the voters catch wind of her long and confusing speeches, it'll be over for her...

Leslie is relatively attractive, takes pleasant pictures, and by her keeping out of the NASTY, NASTY campaigning between Amante, Curry and Choi, she might be a reasonable choice for those voters who will get burned out by the inevitable Negative and Ugly race waged by those three, and vote for Leslie.

Assemblywoman Leslie Daigle has an interesting ring to it huh?

So, in my estimation there is only one person who can prevent this from happening.

And most interesting for Newport Beach residents, she might be one of the people most responsible for defeating the El Toro International Airport.

Yup, Irvine Councilwoman Christina Shea.

Christina thought about this seat in 2000, but backed out to support John Campbell. She is extremely well known in Irvine (like Choi) AND the Republican circles (like Curry and Amante). And while her fundraising skills aren't as strong as the others, like Leslie, if she would be able to hang in there, her Irvine name ID might push her right in.

So our choices Newport Beach voters might have to make will be to support Leslie Daigle

or...Irvine Councilwoman Christina Shea...in Newport Beach...where the El Toro/John Wayne battle still figures prominently in Newport Beach politics.

and for those people who were afraid of a Mayor Leslie Daigle era, I'm sure, shudder to the thought of an Assemblywoman Leslie Daigle era...